Trumponomics - The Smell of Panic
Only 1,372 days to go...
“Fear brings out the best in some people and the worst in others. It's a test of character, for individuals and nations.” ~David Ignatius
Welcome yet another week of Trumponomics…
I have just started following David Frum’s brilliant podcast, The David Frum Show — he spells things out in such a clear, unambiguous, and logical way. I can’t recommend it highly enough.
This week he talks about Trump’s remark, “They don’t have the cards.”
When in fact, Trump doesn’t. If you have the time… I encourage you to listen to it.
Thought for the day…
"The best way to ruin a country is to debauch its currency."
~ Vladimir Lenin
Must Read Article
But since Trump first launched a tariff increase on China in 2018, a number of underlying economic factors have significantly shifted Beijing’s calculus….
Traditionally, the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds have been viewed as haven assets, but recent market turmoil has cast doubt on that status. At the same time, steep tariffs have raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and the sustainability of its debt, undermining trust in both the dollar and U.S. Treasurys.
While Trump’s tariffs will inevitably hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing appears to have far more cards to play this time around. It has the tools to inflict meaningful damage on U.S. interests – and perhaps more importantly, Trump’s all-out tariff war is providing China with a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.
Quote of the day…
“President Trump’s unlawful tariffs are wreaking chaos on California families, businesses, and our economy — driving up prices and threatening jobs. We’re standing up for American families who can’t afford to let the chaos continue.”
~Gov. Gavin Newsom
What I’m reading….
Can the U.S. president fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve because he does not like the job the chairman is doing?
Once upon a time, the answer was a well-understood no. The Federal Reserve was created by Congress. The founding statute guaranteed the Fed’s independence….
Then came Donald Trump. Trump forced out two FBI directors because they would not follow his orders: James Comey at the beginning of Trump’s first term and Christopher Wray at the beginning of the second one. Wray was a Trump appointee whom President Joe Biden left in place for all four years of his term. Trump decided that Wray was not obedient enough and, after Wray’s resignation, replaced him with a loyalist, Kash Patel. Fifty-one of 53 Republican senators voted to confirm Patel, as unqualified as he was. And with that, the tradition of FBI independence was snuffed out.
So tell me again how Trump cannot fire the head of the Federal Reserve?
Trump Is Flirting With Economic Disaster
Trump hasn’t swayed the central bank’s policy in any appreciable way, and Powell—again, a Trump nominee—has proved a deft leader of the central bank. But interest rates are climbing and growth is falling, giving Trump trillions of reasons to get rid of the Fed chair. A pending court case might grant the president the capacity to remove him without cause, in contravention of current law.
Tariff carve-outs underscore weak US position in China trade war: ‘This is going to get really ugly’
But to some White House allies, the exceptions are indicative of the relatively weak position the administration is in as it wages a trade war with China, which has spent years making preparations for an escalation with the U.S. on trade. The carve-outs also reveal the conundrum facing the administration: The U.S. is imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods in an attempt to move manufacturing back to the U.S., but those tariffs are particularly painful for U.S. manufacturers because they are currently so dependent on Chinese parts.
Trump’s Huge Tariff Exemption Grift
Trump’s embarrassing retreat last week from both global tariffs and about a quarter of the tariffs on Chinese goods (by letting “Tim Apple” and other makers of smart phones and computers off the hook) was such big news that it obscured what is likely coming next: A tariff exemption system that essentially puts a “For Sale” sign on the U.S. Government…
And now, there’s a new arena for unfathomable levels of corruption, road-tested in Trump’s first term. It’s the tariff exemption process run out of the Commerce Department and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, a process that a 2020 Wall Street Journal editorial called “a black box.”
To reindustrialize will require investment in people and machines — and a coherent strategy. Given the Trump administration’s aversion to collaboration and the internal contradictions of the factions within the administration, its reindustrialization drive appears disconnected from reality and destined to fail.
Truth Social launches scheme to profit from Trump's tariff policies
Trump can boost or depress the price of virtually any stock through the creation or elimination of tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), best known as the parent company of the social media platform Truth Social, announced it was launching a series of actively managed investment accounts. TMTG is marketing these "Truth Social-branded Separately Managed Accounts" as a way to invest in companies that benefit from Trump's political agenda. Trump remains the majority shareholder of TMTG.
Trump’s Tariff Threat for Imported Medicines Poses Political Risks
Imposing disruptive levies on lifesaving medications creates risks for Mr. Trump that were not a major concern with some of his other tariff targets, like steel and aluminum, where Americans generally aren’t directly exposed to increased prices.
Federal Workers Are Facing a New Reality
“We’re all in public service because we like helping people,” one Missouri-based Social Security employee told me. “What they’re trying to do is break our spirit.”
…all of this chaos is by design. Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, gave the game away this past fall when, in a speech, he said, “We want the bureaucrats to be traumatically affected. When they wake up in the morning, we want them to not want to go to work, because they are increasingly viewed as the villains.”
House Democrats suddenly in array on congressional stock trading
The market turmoil surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariffs has supercharged Democratic attacks on politicians’ investment activity, with top lawmakers calling for investigations of White House officials and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries embracing a ban on trading of individual stocks.
US economy faces $20 billion hit as foreign tourists stay away amid trade war, Trump policies
Recent policies implemented by the Donald Trump administration and rising geopolitical tensions have also spooked potential visitors.
Data published by the International Trade Administration indicates that international travellers spent a record $254 billion in the US last year. The ITA had also projected in early March that the US would welcome 77 million visitors this year. The number however fell sharply as the Donald Trump-led administration cracked down sharply against migrants, initiated a global trade war and sought to expand the American borders. By the end of March, the number of non-citizens flying into the US had dropped by nearly 10% when compared against the previous year.
Trump blasts Fed Chair Powell, saying his ‘termination cannot come fast enough’
Most have said Trump’s tariffs are likely to push up inflation and unemployment. Powell has carried out the Fed’s monetary policy by making decisions that are dependent on economic data in striving for the central bank’s dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The ECB, which only focuses on price stability, also has a data-driven approach like the Fed.
Housewares Retailers Brace for Tariffs
As merchants decide whether to absorb the costs of tariffs or pass them along to their customers, those selling the stuff that makes a home homey — throw pillows, lamps and picture frames — will soon have to decide how much more shoppers are willing to pay for items they don’t necessarily need.
“One hundred percent of our goods are nice-to-have goods, not need-to-have goods,” said Joanne Kwong, the president of Pearl River Mart. “You’re going to need to pay the rent and feed the kids before shopping with us.”
The hypocrisy of MAGA Republicans (who decried the runup in the debt) should hardly surprise those who have watched the GOP morph from a conservative party to a reactionary, unhinged cult of personality relying on phony math and outright lies. Don't ignore Republicans' awful budget: Republicans are telling some people that there will be trillions of cuts to social safety net programs while promising other people that there won’t. But all possible versions of the GOP fiscal agenda result in huge increases to the budget deficit. In some, those increases are partially offset by cuts to programs for the poor; other times the deficits are just really large. What we should be doing is aiming for balanced fiscal consolidation: higher revenue and lower spending, while trying to shelter the most vulnerable from the impact of cuts.
But Republicans want to reduce revenue, raise the deficit, and ensure that the pain of budget cuts falls on the vulnerable.
Who will win this standoff? On the question of which superpower can better withstand the pain, views are mixed.
California is first state to sue Trump on tariffs
California, the world’s fifth largest economy, stands to lose billions to tariffs with major state industries from Silicon Valley to agriculture heavily dependent on global trade.
UPDATE: Congressman demands Social Security reverse "potentially illegal" new policy
A Fourth Circuit Judge Warns Against Reducing The Rule Of Law To Lawlessness
‘Most Powerful Lobbyist in Trump’s Washington’ Cashes in on Corporate Fear
It’s easy to see why so many guys wearing $3,000–$5,000 suits are lining up to sign deals on behalf of their companies with Ballard: He and his associates have a unique level of access to Trump World. Ballard, who lobbied for Trump’s business interests in Florida in the years before the 2016 political campaign, was one of the first confidants Trump called before launching his initial run for president in 2015.
What I’m watching…
“The cruelty is the policy….”
What I’m listening to…
What I read every day…
I think some of you may be interested in the story I’ve been sharing on my Substack, The Ballard Files. I’m continuing to post new information regularly — including podcasts, legal documents, interviews, and media investigations related to Tim Ballard and Operation Underground Railroad.
If you take a look and have questions, feel free to reach out. Thank you for all the important reporting you do — it matters.