Doubling Down
Only 1,405 days to go...
I live in a neighborhood that has people of various political persuasions. People don’t necessarily talk politics, because we know that it might lead to heated discussions. However, last week I was with some neighbors and we got to talking about cars. I had been thinking about getting a new car and we were discussing whether to get one or not given all these ridiculous tariffs - whether this was the right time or not. Given how the stock market was tanking, that added to the discussion which then led to a little more heated discussion about Trump’s erratic and nonsensical economic decisions…
At that point one neighbor said, “Well, at least, we have a president, who is alive.”
Some argument.
(Though “dead Biden” wasn’t even the alternative), I’m finding that people, who voted for #FOTUS are getting very good at rationalizing their vote. I still find it a mystery, why they voted for Trump in first place, with everything that we knew about him at the time:
a convicted felon
88 criminal indictments
2 impeachments
an adjudicated rapist
January 6th attempted coup
6 bankruptcies
total mismanagement of leading us through the pandemic
adding almost $7.8 trillion to the national debt
fascination with authoritarians like Putin
his first administration failed nearly 93% of the time when its agency actions were challenged in court
etc. etc. etc.
But that’s history. Given what has happened since January 20th, how can any rational person justify their vote now?
It’s feels like gamblers at the poker table, who have lost money and are now doubling down to earn the money back. They’re retrenching their position and coming up with justifications like, “Well at least we have a president who’s alive.”
Adam Grant wrote an interesting article last July after Biden’s disastrous debate performance called, There’s a Name for the Trap Biden Faces. The article came out during those weeks when Biden refused to get out of the race.
“There’s a formal name for this trap: escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows, instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter.”
I sense that this is what is happening with all the Trump voters, who are in the process of rationalizing his actions since inauguration.
“One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions but rather to rationalize the decisions we’ve already made. We stick around too long in dead-end jobs. We stay in unhappy marriages even after friends have counseled us to leave. We stand by candidates even after they violate our principles.”
I know there are die-hard MAGA cultists, who think #FOTUS has some grand master plan and everything is going to be great… but I also think there are people, like my neighbor, who are probably just die-hard Republicans, who just couldn’t pull the lever for a Democrat. They knew Trump was questionable, but they voted for him anyway.
I reread Grant’s article and I know the right way to deal with these folks is not to argue — but sometimes I just can’t help myself. But Grant said it best:
The best way to open a stubborn mind isn’t to argue; it’s to listen. When people feel heard, they become less defensive and more reflective…
“When I’ve had discussions like this with leaders in government and business, my biggest struggle has been getting them to acknowledge that failure is a real possibility.”
I’m going to work on listening to these double-downers… a struggle for sure, but it seems like it might be the only way to really make headway.
Thought for the day in honor of his birthday…
“All I want to do is sing and make people happy."
~ Nat King Cole
Must Read Articles:
Don’t Trust the Trumpsplainers
For sure, an American president who wanted to counter the world’s second-largest economy would want to mobilize strong allies. But Trump has aggressively alienated allies, starting with America’s two immediate neighbors and its historical partners in Europe and the Pacific Rim. It’s not just that Trump wants Russia as an ally; he seems to want nobody else—except maybe Saudi Arabia and El Salvador….
Trump’s enthusiasm for Russian President Vladimir Putin—and avidity for Russian money—dates back 20 years. At a time of economic desperation, Trump earned $54 million on the flip of a Palm Beach property.
America Can’t Be Great if America Is Stupid
Among our most significant competitive advantages are our scientists, our laboratories, our system of higher education. They’re a kind of superpower, their output an engine of our wealth — of frontier-expanding technology, medical breakthroughs and production innovations that enrich companies as they improve lives.
But Trump doesn’t seem to get that. Doesn’t want to get that. Gets only that the wonky and effete denizens of the world of ideas aren’t his people, aren’t guaranteed supporters, don’t lavishly praise him and sometimes dare to disparage him. They need their comeuppance, no matter how much damage it does to everyone else.
It Isn’t Just Trump. America’s Whole Reputation Is Shot.
It’s very hard to do big things alone. So competent leaders and nations rely on relationships built on shared values, shared history and shared trust. They construct coalitions to take on the big challenges of the age, including the biggest: whether the 21st century is going to be a Chinese century or another American century.
In that contest the Chinese have many advantages, but until recently America had the decisive one — we had more friends around the world. Unfortunately, over the last month and a half, America has smashed a lot of those relationships to smithereens…
President Trump does not seem to notice or care that if you betray people, or jerk them around, they will revile you. Over the last few weeks, the Europeans have gone from shock to bewilderment to revulsion. This period was for them what 9/11 was for us — the stripping away of illusions, the exposure of an existential threat. The Europeans have realized that America, the nation they thought was their friend, is actually a rogue superpower…
This is not just a Trump problem; America’s whole reputation is shot. I don’t care if Abraham Lincoln himself walked into the White House in 2029, no foreign leader can responsibly trust a nation that is perpetually four years away from electing another authoritarian nihilist…
A new age of nuclear proliferation. As America withdraws its security umbrella, nations around the world, from Poland to even Japan, will conclude that they need nuclear weapons. What could go wrong?
As America betrays its friends, China will seek to make them. China’s special representative for European affairs to the E.U. recently called the Trump administration’s treatment of Europe “appalling.” He continued: “I believe European friends should reflect on this and compare the Trump administration’s policies with those of the Chinese government. In doing so, they will see that China’s diplomatic approach emphasizes peace, friendship, good will and win-win cooperation.”
Quote of the day:
“Trumpian incompetence will provoke a counterreaction, which will prove to be an opportunity and rebirth. When that happens people will be ready to hear the truth that Trump will never understand — that when you turn America into a vast extortion machine, you will get some short-term wins as weaker powers bend to your gangsterism, but you will burn the relationships, at home and abroad, that are actually the source of America’s long-term might.”
~David Brooks
What I’m reading today…
What Trump and Musk Want With Social Security
Some 7 million Americans rely on Social Security benefits for more than 90 percent of their income, and 54 million individuals and their dependents receive retirement payments from the agency. Even if Musk doesn’t eliminate the agency, his tinkering could still affect all of those Americans’ lives. On Wednesday, DOGE dialed back its plans to cut off much of Social Security’s phone services (a commonly used alternative to its online programs, particularly for elderly and disabled Americans), though it still plans to restrict recipients’ ability to change bank-deposit information over the phone.
The chaos emanating from Washington comes at a time when the economy is already slowing. Consumers are still being battered by high prices, particularly for housing; credit-card debt and default rates are climbing; the labor market is seizing up, with workers afraid to quit their jobs and hiring rates falling. As a result, indexes of consumer sentiment and small-business optimism are plunging. Last month, households became more pessimistic about current labor conditions, future business conditions, future income, and future employment prospects, the Conference Board reported.
“It takes a little time,” Trump said of his promised boom. “But I think it should be great.” Instead, we might have a recession. We might have it soon. It definitely won’t feel great.
Donald Trump’s Empty Promises Are Catching Up to Him
It was a strange moment: In January 2025, the guy who had been impeached twice, indicted four times, and convicted on 34 felony counts was as popular as he’d ever been and, unlike in 2016, he actually won the popular vote. Trump is famous for defying political gravity, but even for him, this was unprecedented. It was as if the American people had suffered from collective amnesia and forgotten January 6, the COVID pandemic, and the Black Lives Matter protests. Not only that, it was the first time in 20 years a Republican won the popular vote in the presidential elections. Once again, American voters were angry, once again American voters wanted change, once again American voters bafflingly considered Trump—who had been president once before—to be the outsider….
Voters were angry, but most weren’t angry about government spending—they were angry about the price of eggs. If you were to argue that Trump has a mandate, and he would argue that he does, it would be to make prices lower….But instead of bringing prices down on day one, or even month one, Trump is doing the exact opposite. He’s enacted a trade war and let Elon Musk take a chainsaw to the federal government, both of which have caused market uncertainty. Suddenly, the man who said he was going to make everything cheaper on day one can’t even rule out a recession on his watch, and has instead mused about a “period of transition.”
Musk’s Madisonian Insight—And Its Troubling Consequences
Musk’s team has accessed a Department of Treasury database that guides the disbursement of more than $5 trillion in federal funds. It is tussling with senior officials at the Internal Revenue Service over access to tax returns, among the most protected federal data, and at the Social Security Administration over access to data systems containing medical and bank records. A court has temporarily blocked Musk and his team from obtaining data about millions of Americans’ student loans, but only for now. And just last week, Musk sought access to “the most sensitive of all”: a database reflecting ongoing wage and income information for most working Americans….The branch of government that controls government data can effectuate legal and political projects not otherwise available to it. And it can use those data to contest other branches’ constitutional prerogatives, as Congress’s purse has frequently done for the president’s sword.
Trump Is Unleashing a Chaos Economy
Trump’s first weeks in office have shown that a principled discussion over tariff policy is simply not on the agenda, because the administration’s tariff policy is nonsense.
What we have is chaos. One U.S. uncertainty index of economic policy, which goes back to 1985, has been higher at only one point in the past 40 years: when the coronavirus pandemic began. That, of course, was a global phenomenon that the United States could do little to avoid. What’s going on now, by contrast, is entirely self-inflicted…
It’s obvious to the point of cliché that businesses rely on regulatory—and fiscal—policy predictability in order to plan hiring, capital investments, and pricing strategies. And that means these past few weeks have been very rough. How can you begin a capital-intensive project if you have no idea what anything will cost? The chaos of the current trade policy is a strange parallel to the chaos that the Trump administration has unleashed on the federal government.
Asheville, North Carolina GOP town hall gets rowdy as attendees hurl scathing questions on Trump
As Chuck Edwards expanded on Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tactic, it took less than a minute for the crowd to break out in outrage. He continued to plow ahead in his response and eventually punctuated it by telling attendees he would “stop there and you can yell.” The crowd gladly took him up on the offer.
For about an hour and half, Edwards endured a constant barrage of jeers, expletives and searing questions on Trump administration policies. About 300 people crammed inside a college auditorium for the town hall, while the boos from more than a thousand people outside the building rumbled throughout the event.
GOP Rep Mercilessly Taunted in Another Wild Town Hall Clash, Chuck Edwards made these claims at Thursday’s town hall., Army veteran has no regrets about yelling at Chuck Edwards, getting thrown out of town hall
Secretary Turner Denounces DEI Criteria in Asheville’s Draft Disaster Plan
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Scott Turner released the following statement after the City of Asheville, North Carolina posted a draft action plan on its website which included DEI criteria as part of how it intends to distribute millions of dollars for Hurricane Helene disaster relief. HUD will not approve the city’s draft action plan in its current form.
“HUD looks forward to helping thousands of North Carolinians rebuild after Hurricane Helene by directing funding assistance to impacted businesses, non-profit organizations and neighborhoods. However, Asheville’s draft action plan incorporated DEI criteria to prioritize some impacted residents over others, which was unacceptable. After HUD informed Asheville that its plan was unsatisfactory and it would not be approved, the city assured us that it was updating its draft action plan to be compliant.
“Once again, let me be clear DEI is dead at HUD. We will not provide funding to any program or grantee that does not comply with President Trump’s executive orders,” Secretary Scott Turner stated.
Grocery stores across Denmark, Germany, and Poland are helping boycott U.S. products
Attitudes towards the U.S. have soured in Denmark as President Donald Trump has called for taking control of Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, and for putting tariffs on European goods. A YouGov poll released in January found Danes consider the U.S. a bigger threat than North Korea.
DOGE Makes Its Flubs Harder to Find. So Much for “Transparency”
In the weeks since the DOGE “wall of receipts” launched, it has been riddled with errors. The group has claimed credit for purging contracts that ended decades ago and confused an $8 million ICE contract for an $8 billion contract, among other flubs. DOGE previously responded to the Times' reporting by simply deleting the claims, including five of the biggest purported savings.
The US has pardoned insurrectionists twice before – and both times, years of violent racism followed
Donald Trump is the third U.S. president to pardon a large group of insurrectionists. His clemency toward those convicted of crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection – including seditious conspiracy and assaults on police officers – was different in key ways from the two previous efforts, by Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Ulysses S. Grant in 1873.
The Incoherent Case for Tariffs
Tariffs can, in fact, sometimes help achieve some of these objectives. Targeted tariffs can be a useful instrument to shift sourcing away from unfriendly countries. But they are almost never the best policy to tackle the challenges that concern Trump. And given the complex, interconnected nature of these problems, using tariffs to fix one of them could hamper the country’s ability to solve another.
DOGE lease cancellations: Which government offices could be closed this year and when
A GSA planning document dated March 10 lists the dates when many of the cancellations are expected to go into effect. That does not mean all the locations will close by those dates, but agencies would have to either negotiate new leases or move elsewhere if they remain open. Agencies are still figuring out what to do.
Canada Is an Ally, Not an Enemy
That may not seem like a very large number, but it is 159 more than the Trump family has sent to fight for the American cause in the century and a half since that family’s first draft-dodging ancestor fled military service in Germany. Frederick Trump, the horse-butchering Yukon pimp who brought the Trump family to the United States, had no plans to stay in the country long term, but was expelled ignominiously from his homeland for his cowardly evasion of military service. During the Trump family’s time in the United States, Americans have fought in conflicts ranging from the Spanish-American War to the two world wars to Korea to Vietnam to the Gulf War to Afghanistan and Iraq. None of Trump’s ancestors served in any of those conflicts, and none of his progeny has, either…Donald Trump seems surprised by the ferocity of the Canadian response to his attempts to strong-arm the country with his imbecilic bullying and threats to annex it. I am not. Canadian pride may sometimes take the form of toxic anti-Americanism, but there is no doubting the resolve or the patriotism of our neighbors to the north.
What I am listening to…
What I am watching…
“Andrew Jackson was basically one-man rule because his own party, then the Democratic Party, was — they handed power to one man. And it's the power of a demagogue to really take control. But congresspeople, they want to keep their jobs more than they want to amass power. And they will hand over power if it will keep them out of trouble. And we're seeing the pinnacle of that right now.”
What I read every day…
Check out the game show Deal or No Deal as a real life example of "doubling down.". Contestants open a series of suitcases with a different amounts of money inside. The opened cases are eliminated from the game. A mysterious banker then offers the contestant an amount to buy them out of the game. The amount will go down if the next opened case is a high dollar value. However, contestants inevitably stay in the game to try to regain their highest offer - a good example of doubling down on a losing strategy.